Wheat Falls on Wednesday, Despite a Few Friendly USDA Numbers

Wheat and bread on table

Wheat futures sold some of the bull facts on Wednesday, as several contracts were down double digits across the three exchanges. Chicago futures were down 5 to 11 1/2 cents, led by the front months. KC HRW was 6 1/4 to 17 3/4 cents lower across the board.  MPLS spring wheat futures were 6 to 10 ½ cents in the red. 

Export Sales estimates are running net reduction of 200,000 MT to net sales of 100,000 MT for the final day of the old crop MY. New crop sales are seen totaling 250,000 MT to 600,000 MT in the week that ended on June 6. 

In this month’s WASDE report, the USDA punted on the 23/24 US wheat carryout projection at 688 mbu, as they wait for the NASS Grain Stocks report to give them the final tally on June 28. They did revise the cash average price a dime lower to $7.00. The new crop numbers did see several adjustments, starting with production, which was raised by 17 mbu to 1.875 bbu, all to the HRW category. They raised projected exports by 25 mbu to 800 mbu. That helped to take the projected ending stocks total to 758, an 8 mbu cut. Cash average price was raised by 50 cents to $6.50. 

The world ending stocks were raised by 1.76 MMT to 259.56 MMT for the 23/24 number. However, the new crop saw several adjustments, taking projected stocks down 1.34 MMT to 252.27 MMT. Both old and new crop numbers were above expectations. Much of the new crop drop was due to a 5 MMT cut to the Russian crop at 83 MMT, with Ukraine also down 1.5 MMT to 19.5 MMT.

Jul 24 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.17, down 9 1/2 cents,

Sep 24 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.36, down 10 3/4 cents,

Jul 24 KCBT Wheat  closed at $6.37 1/4, down 17 3/4 cents,

Sep 24 KCBT Wheat  closed at $6.50 1/4, down 15 3/4 cents,

Jul 24 MGEX Wheat  closed at $6.68 1/4, down 10 1/2 cents,

Sep 24 MGEX Wheat  closed at $6.78 3/4, down 10 1/2 cents,

On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.